Travel Zone Projections 2019 (TZP19)

Transport for NSW (TfNSW) produces Travel Zone Projections (TZP) for population, workforce and employment for NSW Travel Zones, as an input into a variety of travel models including the Strategic Travel Model (STM).

At a high level, the data covers three dimensions:

• Time Period: 5 yearly time periods from 2016 to 2056
• Geography: 3,758 travel zones in Travel Zone (TZ16) geography across NSW
• Variables: 60+ variables covering population, dwellings, workforce & employment

The projections are developed to support a strategic view of NSW and are aligned with the NSW Government Common Planning Assumptions.

The projections seek to represent a likely urban and regional future based on current data, trends, and an understanding of policy/structural changes that may impact the future. The TZP projections are not based on specific assumptions about future new transport infrastructure, but do take into account known land-use developments underway or planned, and strategic plans.

Travel Zone Projections 2019 (TZP19) was released in September 2020 and uses key input data from the Census (ABS 2016), Department of Planning, Industry and Environment (DPIE) Population Projections (released 2019) Housing Supply Forecasts as well as NSW employment forecasts by NSW Treasury, industry forecasts by Victoria University, and a custom-built Future Employment Developments Database (FEDD).

TZP19 is based on best available data available as at late 2019 and does not consider impacts from the Covid-19 pandemic.

For a summary of the TZP19 Projections method please refer to the TZP19 Factsheet

For more detail on the projection process please refer to the TZP19 Technical Guide

The TZP19 Population & Dwellings Projections dataset covers the following variables:

• Estimated Resident Population
• Occupied Private Dwellings
• Population in Occupied Private Dwellings, by 5-year Age categories & by Sex
• Population in Non-Private Dwellings

These projections are presented for five-yearly periods aligned with Census years with a base year of 2016 by Travel Zone.

Please note, TZP19 is based on best available data as at late 2019 and does not include impacts from the Covid-19 pandemic.

To view the data

View the data in the Travel Zone Explorer

Download in Excel or CSV format from the TfNSW Open Data Hub. The Excel version contains additional notes, cautions and summary tables.

Key Data Inputs used in TZP19:

• 2019 NSW population projections data – NSW Department of Planning, Industry & Environment
• 2019 NSW household and dwelling projections data – NSW Department of Planning, Industry & Environment
• 2016 Census data - Australian Bureau of Statistics (including dwellings by occupancy, total dwellings by Mesh Block, historical household sizes, private dwellings by occupancy, population age and gender, persons by place of usual residence)

TZP19 Workforce Projections cover persons who reside in Occupied Private Dwellings, aged 15 years and over, and are presented by their usual place of residence.

The following Workforce variables are presented in TZP19:

• Employed People, 15 years and over in Occupied Private Dwellings
• Unemployed People, 15 years and over in Occupied Private Dwellings
• People not in the workforce, 15 years and over in Occupied Private Dwellings

These projections are presented for five-yearly periods aligned with Census years with a base year of 2016 by Travel Zone.

Please note, TZP19 is based on best available data as at late 2019 and does not include impacts from the Covid-19 pandemic.

To view the data

View the data in the Travel Zone Explorer

Download in Excel or CSV format from the TfNSW Open Data Hub. The Excel version contains additional notes, cautions and summary tables.

Key Data Inputs used:

• TZP19 Population and Dwellings projections
• Workforce participation rates - NSW Treasury
• Historical labour force data  - ABS Labour Force Survey

TZP19 Employment Projections are for employed persons by place of work. They are provided by Industry using two breakdowns:

• 33 industry categories (equivalent to the ABS 1-digit Australia and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification (ANZSIC) codes with the exception of Manufacturing which is at 2-digit level).
• 4 Broad Industry Categories (groupings of the above)

These projections are presented for five-yearly periods aligned with Census years with a base year of 2016 by Travel Zone.

Please note, TZP19 is based on data available as at late 2019 and does not include impacts from the Covid-19 pandemic.

To view the data

View the data in the Travel Zone Explorer

Download in Excel or CSV format from the TfNSW Open Data Hub. The Excel version contains additional notes, cautions, a key to the Broad Industry Categories and summary tables.

Key Data Inputs used:

• TZP19 Workforce Projections
• Census Journey to Work 2016 dataset by Destination Zone - ABS
• State-level Employment projections – NSW Treasury
• Economic Forecasts by Industry - Victoria University
• Future Employment Development Database (FEDD) a custom dataset compiled by TfNSW in late 2019 that presents the number of jobs expected from major projects based on publically available documents. For more detail about the FEDD please refer to the FEDD factsheet

The TZP19 dataset represents one view of the future aligned with the NSW Government’s Common Planning Assumptions and population and economic projections.

The projections are not based on specific assumptions about future new transport infrastructure, but do take into account known land-use developments underway or planned, and strategic plans.

• TZP19 is a strategic state-wide dataset and caution should be exercised when considering results at detailed breakdowns
• The TZP19 outputs represent a point in time set of projections (as at December 2019, pre-COVID19)
• The projections are not government targets
• Travel Zone (TZ) level outputs are projections only and should be used as a guide. As with all small area data, aggregating of travel zone projections to higher geographies leads to more robust results
• As a general rule, TZ-level projections are illustrative of a possible future only
• More specific advice about data reliability for the specific variables projected is provided in the “Read Me” page of the Excel format summary spreadsheets on the TfNSW Open Data Hub
• Caution is advised when comparing TZP19 with the previous set of projections (TZP16 v1.51) due to differences linked to changes in geographical classifications, the inclusion of 2016 Census inputs, addition of new data sources for the most recent years, and adjustments to methodology
• A 4-page fact-sheet with important cautions and notes for TZP users is available here